Is it all over? There are two pieces of evidence that we already know the result of the next British General Election. First, for some months now, Labour has been ahead of the Tories by 20 per cent in just about every opinion poll. That is a formidable lead. Second, the most potent slogan in British politics is ‘Time for a change.’ That is what many voters are feeling. The second best one has always been: ‘The country’s doing well. Don’t let the other lot wreck it.’ Yet it is hard for the Tories to deploy that one, for an obvious reason. Not many people are thinking that the country is doing well.
All that said, there are still grounds for believing that the Tories need not despair. Let us start with the public mood. MP friends often - ruefully - report that the mood on the doorstep is surly and resentful. “You politicians are all the same. None of you seems to be able to get a grip on the country’s problems.” Clearly, this is bad news for the Government. But it may not be that exciting for Labour.
Attlee, Wilson and Blair - the three Labour leaders who won large majorities - had one thing in common. They appeared to offer a new beginning, a national uplift: a programme to get the country moving.
Sir Keir Starmer is much more modest in his ambitions. “You can’t stand the Tories,” he seems to be saying. “And anyway, it’s now my turn. But don’t worry: I’m not going to change much.”
This could well be enough. If the Tories continue to give the impression of being divided and there is a regular supply of MPs ready to express disloyalty to their Leader, Labour might be able to sleepwalk its way to power. The public do not respect divided parties. They take the view that if the MPs cannot agree among themselves, why should they be taken seriously?
Yet there are two ways in which the Tories could reassert themselves. The first is a determined effort by Rishi Sunak to project himself. At the Tory Conference in Manchester, he addressed the change question.
It was an audacious strategy from a leader whose Party had been in Government for 13 years. Sunak acknowledged that people wanted change, and so they should. But he was the change. Bold stuff.
People want to know more about this first Asian Prime Minister, so he can command a hearing in a way that poor John Major found impossible during his final period in office when his Premiership turned into a calvary.
Sunak must find two voices, an intellectual one and a personal one. The first comes easily do him. He should be able to explain to the country why the economy has had problems, summarised in two five-letter words: Covid and Putin. Between them, they have been responsible for economic dislocation, leading to much higher borrowing, higher taxes and inflation. Tough measures were necessary and the Government did not hesitate to take them. It was a difficult period but the Government stayed firm and we are now through the worst. Inflation is falling. It is now possible to cut taxes. There is still a great deal to do, but in many areas of the country, new businesses are growing, new jobs are being created and there is a revival of animal spirits.
Reaching into his heart and soul, Sunak ought to tell us who he is and what he believes: what Britain means to him. He should expound the patriotic foundation of his political values. If he opens the throttle in that way, he should be far more effective than Keir Starmer. With his wooden delivery, concerned above all to avoid alarming the voters, Sir Stumbler will sound as passionate as a speak-your-weight machine.
There is a further factor. Starmer is cautious because he fears that many voters do not trust the Labour Party. The Tories should find a way of playing on this.
There is also another ground for mistrust: namely, the state of the entire world. This is no time for sleep-walking. We need vigilant leaders who can think through hard problems and combat insecurity. There are neither easy answers nor short-term solutions. For the foreseeable future, we will be living in an era beset by risks.
Harold Wilson famously said that a week was a long time in politics. There is still time for Sunak to rally and fight back. But he will have to get on with it. If he were facing the young Tony Blair, there would be no chance. Fortunately for Sunak, his adversary is no Tony Blair. The current PM still has an opportunity to prove that he is the more exciting leader, and the more competent one.
